What a stage we had yesterday with the lead and possibly outcome completely shifting. I can’t believe I managed to select the two riders who took huge falls, but that’s the way it goes. Let’s get back in to the winners circle today!
It’s between Orica and Astana for the pink jersey and my money is on Nibali and his amazing team to wear down Chaves, who’s Orica team is fairly lightweight in the hills. With the gap at just 44 seconds, Astana could just wait until the penultimate climb and then go crazy. To be honest, Chaves cracked today because of fatigue. It would benefit Astana to make the race very hard.
A breakaway looks quite likely to stay the distance as none of the big teams will be willing to chase dow. Astana will try and put men in the break to help Nibali so we can cross any of these guys off the list. Cannondale are starting to ride well so they are an option to have as many as possible up there. Jo Dobrowski looks strong at this stage and could well be up there.
I still like the chances of David Formolo if he’s on form. These hills are perfect fro him, but he does need to find a bit of form. A big price and a small each way bet is the way forward.
Sky have also started to look strong and yesterday I was very impressed with Mikel Nieve who stayed with Chaves and Nibali for a long time. He’s already won a stage and has the experience on these stages to take a big win. The other Sky rider who has the talent but is yet to get in a break is Sebastian Henao. The Colombian will enjoy this terrain and should try and make the breakaway.
Advised bets (8 points total)